Fauci's private notes show lower COVID fatality estimate than congressional testimony

Personal notes dated February 8 show Dr. Anthony Fauci believed COVID-19’s true case-fatality rate was between 0.2% and 0.3%, based on discussions with former CDC head Tom Frieden and the assumption that many mild cases were uncounted. When he appeared before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on March 11, he asserted the mortality rate had started at 2% and increased to 3%, equating to 20-30 deaths per 1,000 patients.

Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul released the diary ahead of a hearing in which Fauci repeatedly avoided answering pointed queries about his pandemic response. The World Health Organization’s final pandemic assessment placed the global case-fatality rate at 0.91%, roughly one-third of Fauci’s congressional estimate. One outlet contacted Fauci for comment, but no reply was recorded. The revelation underscores a gap between Fauci’s private calculations and his public statements during the early pandemic response.