Fertility rates in the Maghreb hit historic lows amid economic and social change
A new study shows that birth rates in Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have fallen to record lows, driven by financial pressure, longer education and shifting family norms.
A recent INED report finds that fertility in the Maghreb has reached its lowest point ever, with Tunisia reporting 1.58 children per woman in 2023 and an estimated 1.53 in 2024, while Morocco and Algeria remain higher at 1.97 and 2.61 respectively. Demographers attribute the shift to deeper social changes, including longer schooling for women, urban living, higher divorce rates and the financial burden of childrearing.
Interviews with individuals such as Nadia Jaouadi, Chaimae Drioui and others illustrate personal decisions to remain child-free for economic and health reasons. The falling birth rates are creating an ageing population, now comprising 17% of Tunisia's residents and growing in Algeria and Morocco, which could strain pension schemes and shrink the working-age pool. INED warns that without immigration, especially from sub-Saharan Africa, population growth may stall. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing demographic realities with migration sensitivities.
Why it matters
Slowing births reshape the Maghreb's economy, social services and future labour supply.
In this story