Flávio Bolsonaro's win could trigger Brazil's exit from BRICS

Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential race with 47.03% of the vote, a margin that recent surveys suggest has widened to a lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He has pledged to reassess Brazil’s role in the BRICS grouping, describing it as “highly ideological” and leaving a possible departure on the table. His foreign-policy blueprint, however, omits any mention of BRICS and instead emphasizes joining the OECD and deepening relations with the United States, Israel and Argentina.

While Brazil’s trade with China remains substantial—nearly $100 billion in goods last year—analysts argue that a Bolsonaro government may favor U.S. interests, especially after recent U.S. pressure on Brazilian firms and rare-earth deals. The potential exit would remove Brazil’s roughly 20% stake in the New Development Bank, a key financial tie to the bloc. If Brazil leaves, the United States would gain a major regional ally, while BRICS would lose its sole large Latin-American member.