Florida Senate Race Tightens as Incumbent and Progressive Challenger Split Voters
A new poll shows Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democratic challenger Angie Nixon virtually tied at about 45 percent each in the Florida U.S. Senate race.
A recent poll commissioned by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics finds the contest for Marco Rubio’s former Senate seat essentially a toss-up, with Republican Ashley Moody at 45.2 percent and Democrat Angie Nixon at 44.8 percent of likely voters. The survey, conducted this week, reflects the state’s voter registration advantage for Republicans—about 1.5 million more registered GOP voters—and applies a 3.2-point margin of error.
Voter composition was weighted to 42 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 27 percent unaffiliated, and Nixon holds a 50-37 lead among independents. Earlier polls from Quantus Insights and the University of North Florida had shown Moody ahead by 7-8 points, but the new data suggests a much tighter race after Nixon’s primary victory over Alex Vindman, a former Army intelligence officer. Political analysts had previously assumed the seat was safe for Republicans, but the emerging parity underscores growing uncertainty in several Senate contests nationwide.
Why it matters
The poll reveals a highly competitive Senate race in a traditionally Republican state, signaling potential shifts in national political balance.
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