Flu season may push death toll to historic highs, warns epidemiologist

According to epidemiologist Michael Baker, current indicators such as soaring hospitalisation rates and a surge in health-line contacts imply that this year's influenza season could result in a historically high death toll. He cautions that the final figure will only be confirmed after the year concludes, but the data suggest the upper bound of past records. Modelling of flu deaths is complex because the virus can trigger fatal events like heart attacks that are not always recorded as flu-related.

Recent statistics from PHF Science show "very high" levels of flu and flu-like illness admissions, with Auckland experiencing its highest hospitalisation numbers in a decade and a peak of 9.5 severe acute respiratory infections per 100,000 people, more than double last year's rate. Baker advocates for clearer public communication on flu risks and praises the free vaccine for vulnerable groups as a factor that could save lives. He also notes that overall flu hospitalisation rates have started to fall among the general population in the past two weeks.