Forecast-Driven Reservoir Management Could Unlock Up to 315,000 Acre-Feet of Water Annually
A new study finds that using advanced weather forecasts to guide reservoir releases could add roughly 315,000 acre-feet of water each year, delivering $100-$200 million in economic benefits without building new dams.
A recent paper in Environmental Research: Water suggests that California could boost its water supply by approximately 315,000 acre-feet each year by applying forecast-informed reservoir operations (FIRO) to existing dams. The analysis covered 20 large reservoirs, representing about half of the state's surface-water storage, and used historical data to model how improved storm and inflow forecasts would alter release decisions.
By releasing water ahead of major storms or retaining more when inflows are unlikely, operators could free up storage space and capture additional water, potentially generating $145 million in direct benefits for agriculture and cities, with a broader range of $100-$200 million annually. In particularly wet years, the gain could approach 500,000 acre-feet, enough for over a million households. The authors caution that FIRO is not a substitute for new infrastructure but a complementary tool, and they call for detailed, reservoir-specific assessments to address operational constraints and environmental impacts. Additional advantages such as enhanced flood management, hydropower, and recreational value were noted but not quantified.
Why it matters
Improving reservoir management could provide millions of Californians with more water and billions in economic value without costly new construction.
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