Forecast predicts unusually active North-west Pacific typhoon season

According to the latest outlook from Tropical Storm Risk, the ongoing typhoon season in the North-west Pacific is shaping up to be one of the most vigorous on record as El Nino intensifies. The projection calls for typhoon activity about 60 percent higher than the long-term average, with an estimated twenty tropical cyclones forming, of which thirteen could reach intense strength. These numbers surpass the ten-year averages of 14.2 total and 8.4 intense storms, reflecting revisions made since earlier forecasts.

So far the basin has produced three Category 5 typhoons, and other named storms are currently active, with one expected to hit Japan soon. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center is also monitoring an additional tropical depression. Forecaster Adam Lea attributes the heightened risk to strong ocean-atmosphere coupling linked to record Pacific temperatures and unusually weak trade winds.