Former diplomat warns Finland must adapt to a fragmented US and rising China

Jukka Valtasaari’s latest work links four decades of growing income gaps and the marginalisation of low-skill workers to the emergence of Donald Trump, portraying the former president as a symptom rather than the cause of America’s fragmentation. He contends that the United States, while still the world’s strongest military power, has voluntarily relinquished two key pillars of its influence: the international rules-based order and firm commitments to alliances such as NATO, unsettling long-standing partners.

The shift began under Barack Obama and continues after Trump, leaving the global system without a clear Cold-War-style rival. Valtasaari stresses that any new world balance must involve both the US and China, whose interdependence makes conflict costly. For Finland, he advises expanding security cooperation beyond traditional military ties, integrating economic and technological dimensions, and harnessing AI responsibly to avoid widening global inequality.