Former Tory voters flock to Carney, boosting Liberals to potential landslide

According to an online poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute from Sept. 2-7, 13 percent of Canadians who voted Conservative in 2025 would now choose a Liberal party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, amounting to about one million votes. The poll also records sizable defections from the NDP—31 percent of its 2025 voters—and the Bloc Québécois—21 percent—toward the Liberals, while a smaller flow moves Liberal voters to the NDP.

Overall, the Liberals are placed at 46 percent versus 32 percent for the Conservatives, mirroring a recent Liaison Strategies poll. Election modelling suggests such a swing could yield a Liberal caucus of roughly 239 seats, the largest landslide since 1949. The shift is attributed largely to the “Trump Bump,” with Carney’s popularity rising after trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.