Fraser Institute study finds Canada falling further behind U.S. in per-capita GDP and productivity

A Fraser Institute report released this one outlet finds that Canada’s economic performance has slipped further behind that of the United States over the last quarter-century. Inflation-adjusted GDP per person rose from $48,076 in 1999 to $59,529 in 2024 in Canada, while the U.S. increased from $58,842 to $83,286, expanding the gap from $10,766 to $23,757. The study notes that median employment income, private-sector employment share, labour productivity and business investment per worker all moved in Canada’s disadvantage relative to the U.S. between 1999 and 2024.

It attributes the divergence partly to a decline in private-sector jobs, slower productivity growth (27% versus 68%), and reduced investment—Canada’s investment per worker fell to about 54 cents of the U.S. level by 2024. Authors point to policy shifts after 2014, including lower oil prices, higher taxes on high earners and rising federal debt, as factors that may have dampened investment and growth. The institute suggests refocusing on balanced budgets and debt restraint to improve future performance.