Fuel price pressures persist as Iran conflict and Ukraine strikes drive diesel squeeze and shipping costs soar
Analysts note that diesel supplies are being squeezed by both the war in Ukraine and the ongoing Iran conflict, with the latter accounting for a larger loss of barrels according to export data. In New Zealand, the national average for 95‑octane petrol sits at $3.80 per litre, with only a few stations exceeding $4. Shipping costs for very large crude carriers have risen sharply since the start of the year, adding further pressure to oil prices.
Spain is seeing record‑high petrol prices and has extended a 20‑cent‑per‑litre fuel subsidy beyond its original expiry date. The combined impact of these factors is keeping fuel prices elevated across multiple markets.
Why it matters
Higher fuel costs affect everyday expenses for drivers, commuters and the price of goods that rely on transportation.
How the sides frame it
HIGH AGREEMENTAll camps report that diesel prices have surged to near-record levels because of disruptions from the Iran-US conflict (and, in some cases, the Ukraine war), but they differ in what they stress: the left highlights the broader cost-of-living impact and calls for relief, the center focuses on the data and government measures, and the right emphasizes the market spike and policy responses.
LEFT
Frames the story as a severe cost-of-living shock that ripples through freight, food and other goods, urging relief measures and warning of inflationary pressure.
CENTER
Frames the story as a factual report of soaring diesel and petrol prices linked to Middle-East tensions, noting government subsidies, caps and strategic-reserve releases.
RIGHT
Frames the story as a record-high price crisis driven by geopolitical disruptions, highlighting the need for policy action and mentioning political responses such as tax pauses and export-ban threats.
The left emphasises
- diesel’s role in trucks, courier vans, farm machinery and construction spreads the price increase through freight, food and other goods
- analysts project inflation rising to 4.9% in the June quarter and pressure on central banks
- unions and business chambers demand $600 million in fuel relief to ease the cost-of-living crisis
The right emphasises
- diesel hit historic US$6.28 per gallon and £2 per litre in the UK, the highest since post-Ukraine-invasion spikes
- Trump’s executive order pausing diesel fuel tax obligations and threats of a US export ban are noted
- G7 emergency talks and EU rejection of a diesel export ban are highlighted as policy responses
How this story developed
- Sep 15 UK fuel prices hit four-year highs as oil market turmoil continues
- Sep 22 Trump told reporters he wants to stop sending diesel abroad, citing the surge in diesel costs driven by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is reviewing whether a full or partial ban is feasible. Republican Senate hopefuls, including Ashley Hinson, have urged the government to adopt the ban to ease price pressures on Americans.
- Sep 23 Rural GOP lawmakers have publicly demanded action on diesel exports ahead of the November election.
- Sep 24 President Trump announced support for a diesel export ban.
- Sep 26 The European Union has asked the administration to keep U.S. diesel exports flowing amid the price surge.
- Sep 26 President Donald Trump announced new fuel-economy rules that scrap the electric-vehicle mandate introduced under Joe Biden.
- Sep 28 The 2031 fuel‑economy target was lowered to roughly 34.9 mpg.
- Sep 29 Trump said he will look into limiting diesel exports.
- Sep 30 Diesel prices have risen to a record level, with a full tank now costing about £110.
- Oct 5 G7 nations agreed to tap emergency reserves after the United States signaled it would not impose a diesel export ban.
- Oct 14 President Trump took steps to release diesel stocks and negotiate with Russia.
- Oct 17 Spain extended its 20‑cent‑per‑litre fuel subsidy beyond the planned November 1 expiry.
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