Future U.S. Trade Strategy Likely to Keep Trump-Era Tariffs in Place

The author examines three scenarios for U.S. trade policy after one outlet president leaves office. A complete replication of Trump’s aggressive tariff regime is assigned a 20% likelihood, requiring a successor with a strong attachment to protectionism. The baseline, labeled “tempered Trumpism,” carries a 75% probability, reflecting the lasting skepticism toward free trade among both parties and the political importance of swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This version would keep tariffs and export controls, especially against China, but use them less disruptively. A full return to free-trade principles is viewed as a 5% prospect, dependent on a dramatic change in China’s export-driven, state-subsidized economy. The analysis notes that existing tariffs are “sticky” because their costs are diffuse while beneficiaries are concentrated, making rapid reversal unlikely. Overall, the next administration is expected to retain tariff tools while moderating their impact.