Germany faces shrinking population and rising retiree share, study warns of regional gaps

Researchers from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development and the Wüstenrot Foundation forecast Germany’s total population to shrink from 83.5 million in 2025 to around 81.8 million by 2045, accompanied by a 4.7 % drop in the working-age segment. The ageing of the baby-boomer generation, low birth rates and insufficient immigration are identified as the main drivers. While metropolitan hubs like Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich and several eastern cities are projected to gain residents, many western and rural districts, especially in eastern Germany, are expected to lose up to 18 % of their workforce.

The study stresses that economic attractiveness, quality jobs, skilled-worker supply, robust municipal finances, childcare and transport are crucial for retaining and attracting population. It calls for more flexible regulations, greater local fiscal autonomy and tailored regional policies to mitigate the demographic challenge.