Germany pushes to become Europe’s strongest conventional army, sparking division among allies

A German defence white paper released in April outlines an ambitious plan to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s most powerful conventional force, targeting 460,000 personnel and a €152.8 bn budget by 2029—surpassing the combined defence outlays of the UK and France. The strategy includes acquiring F-35 jets, modernising Leopard tanks and procuring Tomahawk missiles, while Rheinmetall has opened the continent’s largest ammunition plant in Lower Saxony.

Proponents argue the shift fills a gap as the United States appears to retreat from NATO leadership, but critics in France and Poland warn that Germany’s growing might and the electoral success of the far-right AfD could destabilise European security dynamics. Analysts also highlight obstacles such as Germany’s historic aversion to military service, lack of nuclear deterrent and the need to develop a risk-taking strategic culture.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pushing for permanent troop deployments to Lithuania, and talks are ongoing about German participation in Britain’s Trident programme. The overall trajectory suggests Germany could emerge as a central security pillar in Europe by the early 2030s, but the path is fraught with political and strategic tensions.