Global Guardian raises Iran to extreme risk and flags new security, health and oil threats for 2027
The 2027 Global Risk Map by Global Guardian upgrades Iran to extreme risk and highlights rising threats in the Gulf, Ecuador and Cuba, while noting two major disease outbreaks and a historic oil-market shock.
Global Guardian’s latest Global Risk Map, refreshed in September 2026 for the 2027 outlook, shows a widening security landscape. Iran’s rating climbed from high to extreme as its conflict with the United States and Israel deepens, accompanied by economic strain and arbitrary-detention worries. Bahrain and Kuwait shifted to high risk because of exposure to possible Iranian strikes on U.S. forces, while Ecuador’s rating rose to high amid surging gang violence, cocaine-related disputes and the use of explosives.
Cuba slipped to medium risk as blackouts, fuel shortages and sanctions pressure its power grid and health system; Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia also moved to medium risk after the 2026 Iran war highlighted vulnerabilities of U.S. installations and oil infrastructure. Conversely, Jamaica, South Korea and Hungary were downgraded, reflecting falling homicide rates, political stabilization and the removal of Viktor Orbán’s party. The map warns of two concurrent health crises—hantavirus and Ebola—and cites the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the largest ever oil-market disruption.
Why it matters
The updated risk ratings signal shifting global security hotspots, health emergencies and energy instability that could affect travel, investment and policy decisions.
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