Global markets rally as Chinese AI gains ground, Fed rate odds rise and Iran talks resume

Global equity markets climbed on Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures up nearly 1 % and Asian indices such as the CSI 300 and Nifty 50 posting double-digit gains, buoyed by lower oil prices and a spectacular debut of Chinese chipmaker CXMT, whose shares jumped over 460 %. In Beijing, Moonshot AI launched Kimi K3, the largest open-source large-language model to date, claiming performance near Anthropic’s Fable 5 while costing far less, prompting U.S. firms to adopt the technology to curb AI spending.

On the monetary front, the CME FedWatch index shows traders now assign roughly a one-third chance of a July rate hike, up from near certainty of a hold earlier this year, as higher oil prices pressure the Federal Reserve’s inflation stance. Diplomatic headlines highlighted a second night of U.S. attack suspension on Iran, with UN ambassador Mike Waltz saying the pause aims to facilitate talks on allowing vessels to use a southern route near Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic. Analysts also noted that in several Asian economies, rising AI contribution coincides with a shrinking share of tech employment, and a study found college-educated women increasingly marrying higher-earning men without degrees.