Global Powers Entrapped in an Escalating Economic Chokepoint Arms Race

U.S. policymakers under the Trump administration began treating global supply-chain bottlenecks as tools of coercion, prompting allies to reassess dependence on China and on American financial and security umbrellas. Beijing, in turn, accuses Washington of economic pressure while using its dominance over rare-earths and semiconductors to push back. Europe aims to build a euro-based alternative to the dollar and to develop its own chokepoint leverage, yet its fragmented approach leaves it vulnerable to both U.S. and Chinese pressure.

Experts such as David Bulman, Matt Ferchen and Robert Jervis argue that this focus on capabilities creates a classic security dilemma, where defensive actions trigger reciprocal countermeasures. Recent episodes—like the U.S. Commerce Department’s short-lived affiliates rule and China’s expanded rare-earth export controls—illustrate how ambiguous policies amplify mistrust. The resulting “chokepoint trap” threatens to fragment the global economy, increase volatility, and raise the spectre of larger economic or even military conflict.