GOP faces shortfall in redistricting gains as midterm outlook dims

In the run-up to the November 3 midterms, Republican leaders have revised down their redistricting optimism, now forecasting victories in only about five of the roughly 13-plus districts that could have been added to their caucus. Earlier projections of 13-14 pickups have been tempered by the reality that the party has already poured about $100 million into campaigns for nine seats it now doubts it can win. While GOP officials argue that Democratic attempts at counter-redistricting have faltered in states such as Virginia, Democrats highlight new opportunities in places like California’s 13th, 22nd and 48th districts and Texas’ 35th district.

Shifts in the Hispanic and Latino electorate, especially in Texas and Florida, have further complicated Republican calculations. Party figures such as Adam Kincaid of the National Republican Redistricting Trust maintain that the maps were drawn fairly, yet concede that some districts will be hard to defend. Meanwhile, Democratic leaders, including Suzan DelBene and Johnny Garcia, argue the new lines favor their candidates and could help flip the House.