GOP insiders warn Trump’s base is eroding ahead of the midterms

President Donald Trump appears increasingly concerned about a potential loss of congressional control, as evidenced by Jared Kushner’s meeting with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other election-interference efforts. Election analysts note that support for Trump has fallen most sharply among independents, Hispanic voters, and white voters without a college degree, groups that previously propelled him to the White House.

A GOP campaign strategist warned that the situation could be worse than the 2018 midterms, pointing to economic disappointment among women who once bought into Trump’s fiscal vision. Economist Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute highlighted inflation as a key driver of voter dissatisfaction. Further commentary from Sean Trende of RealClear Politics emphasized that traditionally red states like Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska remain strong for Republicans, but he still estimates Democrats have a roughly two-in-five chance of taking the Senate, with other models suggesting an even higher likelihood.