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GOP leaders warn of possible midterm losses as Democratic momentum builds

Senator Jim Justice cautioned fellow Republicans that post-Labor Day polls show growing Democratic strength ahead of the November 3 midterms.

Senator Jim Justice warned that the GOP is confronting a surge in Democratic support as the midterm election approaches, citing poll trends that favor the opposition. He argued that ordinary voters, whom he referred to as "Toby and Edith," are dissatisfied and may either vote Democrat or abstain, posing a significant challenge. A Republican strategist, speaking anonymously, said that despite Governor Greg Abbott outspending his Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in Texas, the contest is closer than anticipated.

In Ohio and Nevada, large Republican expenditures—$70 million and $40 million respectively—have failed to produce decisive advantages, leaving races competitive. The American Principles Project also urged Republicans to clarify their economic message to families. Overall, the party is grappling with the prospect of losing control of Congress despite its financial edge.

Why it matters

The warnings signal that the GOP could lose congressional majorities, reshaping U.S. policy direction.

How this story developed

  1. Aug 17 Midterm outlook shifts as key Senate and governor contests turn competitive
  2. Aug 27 Trump arrived in Texas for a fundraising event supporting the Republican candidate.
  3. Aug 29 Talarico aired his first television advertisement targeting Paxton.
  4. Sep 1 President Trump arrived in Texas to fundraise for Ken Paxton.
  5. Sep 1 Lone Star Liberty PAC committed $15 million to a new television advertising campaign for Paxton.
  6. Sep 1 Speaker Mike Johnson said he met with Elon Musk in an effort to secure financial support for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections.
  7. Sep 2 A poll shows Talarico at 44.0% and Paxton at 43.4% among likely voters.
  8. Sep 4 The America PAC filing listed independent expenditures in multiple 2026 races.
  9. Sep 6 Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar is refusing federal demands for voter data, while Republican rival Jim Marchant persists in promoting unfounded fraud allegations.
  10. Sep 7 MAGA Inc. filed an FEC report showing a new advertising purchase for the Texas Senate contest.
  11. Sep 11 Analysts reclassified the contest as a toss‑up with Talarico outspending Paxton by roughly seven‑fold.
  12. Sep 13 Senator John Cornyn publicly rebuked Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, after French posted a racially charged comment about South Asian students at a University of Texas football game.
  13. Sep 14 Republican candidates have also entered secretary of state races in Arizona and Wisconsin.
  14. Sep 18 Cornyn has not yet decided whether to support the Democratic challenger or abstain.

In this story

midterm electionsGOP panicDemocratic momentumpolling trendscampaign spendingvoter turnoutRepublican strategy
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