Government reviews secret aged-care funding algorithm as waitlists swell and deaths rise

At a press briefing, Health Minister Mark Butler said the government is reviewing the secret formula used to allocate aged-care funding, clarifying that it is separate from the Independent Assessment Tool (IAT) endorsed by the Royal Commission. Unlike the IAT, which was trialled on 22,000 people with clinician input, the algorithm was launched on November 1 without a live pilot and with no publicly disclosed development report.

Professor Kathy Eagar, who designed a comparable classification system, reverse-engineered the Support at Home algorithm and found that minor score changes can alter annual funding by nearly $40,000, while many clinical factors are ignored. Senate estimates revealed the algorithm was built by a consultancy, then modified in-house, using data from 200,000 assessments but without clinician sign-off. The Senate has voted to abandon the tool, the Ombudsman is investigating 800 complaints, and the government has earmarked $18 million to review both the IAT and the algorithm. Critics argue the lack of an override mechanism and a cumbersome appeals process leave many seniors without recourse as waitlists grow and deaths increase.