Gulf conflict likely to end only through negotiated compromise and mediation
The piece argues that the current US-Israel-Iran war in the Gulf cannot be settled by decisive victory and will require a negotiated compromise, especially to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
The column contends that the ongoing Gulf war, involving the United States, Israel and Iran, does not fit traditional patterns of war termination, either by decisive victory or by a stalemate settlement. It reviews past conflicts such as World Wars, the Iran-Iraq war, and recent US engagements in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, highlighting that the United States has never fully achieved its war aims. The recent 2024 US-Israeli operation against Iran was abruptly stopped, leading to a series of reciprocal strikes without a clear winner.
The author argues that Iran's extensive borders and access to the Caspian Sea make sanctions and blockades far less coercive than those imposed on Iraq in the 1990s. With Iran’s leadership becoming more hard-line, the pressing concern is the disruption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens global oil prices and economic stability. He urges stronger mediation efforts, inviting Europe, China and regional actors such as Pakistan, Oman and Qatar to help broker a compromise that restores the strait and averts a wider crisis.
Why it matters
The conflict threatens global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, risking worldwide economic instability.
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