Gulf oil shipments top pre-war levels despite rising attacks in Hormuz

In the week ending 18 October, Gulf oil exporters moved 24.6 million barrels per day, surpassing the 23.3 million barrels per day seen before the February 28 US-Israeli offensive against Iran. The increase comes amid a sharp rise in Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reporting at least 12 incidents, including the loss of a fully-laden UAE container vessel.

To maintain flows, Gulf states are relying on ship-to-ship transfers, often using their own national carriers to mitigate insurance costs and safety concerns. Saudi Arabia has added Red Sea routes, sending oil to Asia via Bab el-Mandeb and, after a Houthi embargo, diverting shipments through a pipeline to the Mediterranean via Egypt. Kpler data indicate that while Hormuz transits are still more than a third below pre-war levels, about 40 % of non-Iranian crude now bypasses the strait, up from 17 % previously.

Iraq has also secured a pipeline deal with Syria to move oil to the Mediterranean. Despite higher export volumes, Brent crude hovers around $109 per barrel and diesel prices have risen, partly due to tighter shipping capacity caused by longer detour routes.