Hamas retains 30,000 fighters three years after Oct. 7, challenging Netanyahu's victory promise

Israel is preparing to commemorate the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas offensive that ignited the country’s longest war in decades. Intelligence assessments indicate that Hamas still commands about 30,000 armed fighters, essentially unchanged from its pre-attack strength. The conflict has resulted in almost 500 Israeli soldiers killed and tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths in the Gaza Strip, alongside the seizure of 250 hostages, primarily civilians.

Despite these losses, the militant group’s continued capacity undermines Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge of a "total victory" and his promise to fulfill war goals before upcoming elections. Netanyahu continues to assure voters that Israel will meet its objectives, even as the war’s human toll remains high. The persistence of Hamas’s military capability highlights the difficulty of achieving a decisive end to the conflict.