Heavy Rainfall Emerges as Top Climate Threat to Cocoa Production, Study Finds

Researchers headed by Anna Lea Albright examined detailed production, rainfall and temperature records across Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, and found that unusually heavy rain during the flowering stage cuts yields far more than heat stress. The analysis, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, also identified comparable rain-related yield drops in Ecuador and Indonesia, and linked the trend to a warming atmosphere that holds more moisture.

Ghanaian farmer Leslie Agyare described how torrential rains this year prevented harvesting and increased fungal infections such as black pod disease. Experts note that aging trees and illegal gold mining add further pressure, while adaptation options include fungicide use, improved drainage and centralized post-harvest processing. Rising cocoa prices—up to $12,000 per tonne in 2024—are already prompting interest in cocoa-free alternatives like the sunflower-seed chocolate developed by a German startup in partnership with Nestlé. The study underscores the need for substantial infrastructure investment to keep cocoa farming viable in West Africa.