Housing target delayed to 2030 as rates, tax reforms and Iran conflict weigh

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, which monitors the National Housing Accord, now projects that the 1.2 million new-home target will not be achieved until the end of 2030, later than its earlier September 2030 estimate. The shift follows the May budget’s removal of negative-gearing benefits for existing investment properties and tighter capital-gains discounts, alongside a third Reserve Bank cash-rate increase to 4.35 % and higher fuel and material costs driven by the ongoing Iran conflict.

Although overall approvals are up 26 % and commencements 15 % since the Accord began, state performance varies: Victoria is near its deadline of December 2029, while NSW is now forecast to miss its share until March 2032 and Tasmania until June 2034. Housing Minister Clare O'Neil and Environment Minister Murray Watt say construction price growth has slowed from 17 % in 2022 to 3.8 %, aligning with inflation. Builders’ chief Denita Wawn warns that financial uncertainty is curbing project viability, and the opposition cites a potential shortfall of about 200,000 homes. The Senate has agreed to a six-month inquiry to examine the Accord, recent tax changes, and related housing policies.