IAEA warns uranium output will halve by 2040 as nuclear demand surges
The IAEA says existing uranium mines could cut production by at least 50% by 2040, while global nuclear fuel demand may rise 50-144% by 2050.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Nuclear one outlet 2026 warns that production from existing uranium mines is expected to drop by at least half by 2040, creating a widening mismatch with rising nuclear fuel needs. Forecasts from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the IAEA’s Uranium 2024 report indicate that annual uranium demand could climb to between 90,045 and 142,631 tonnes by 2050, a 50-144% increase over current levels.
Bringing new mines online or extending the life of existing ones typically takes 10-15 years, and the report notes that conversion and enrichment facilities are already insufficient and will fall further behind demand through 2040. The uneven geographic spread of enrichment capacity adds further risk to the supply chain. These challenges arise as nations, including India, which aims to reach 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, turn to nuclear power for energy security and decarbonisation. The IAEA stresses that securing financing, controlling project costs, and navigating regulatory hurdles are essential to accelerate reactor construction and ensure reliable fuel supplies.
Why it matters
A uranium shortfall could delay nuclear projects that many countries depend on for clean energy and energy security.
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