Iberian growth forecasts rise as Spain lifts 2026 outlook and Portugal budget projects over 2% growth
The Bank of Spain announced a revision of its 2026 gross domestic product forecast, increasing it to 2.6% from 2.3% and raising its inflation projection to 3.9% from 3.6%, citing strong household expenditure and noting the influence of global energy markets and recent Middle East escalations. It also expects growth to ease to 2.2% the following year. Meanwhile, Portugal's 2027 State Budget projects real GDP growth of more than 2% for the coming year, citing a surge in private investment inflows that are expected to rise by double‑digit percentages, even as public investment is set to contract after the Recovery and Resilience Plan. Inflation is expected to decline, supporting private consumption and export growth.
How this was covered
- Left-leaning outlets covered this 26h later
- The two sides describe this in almost entirely different words
Why it matters
The revised forecasts shape fiscal planning, investment decisions and political dynamics in both Spain and Portugal as they navigate inflation pressures and upcoming elections.
How this story developed
- Oct 7 Banco de Portugal raises outlook for Portugal's economic growth this year
- Oct 11 Spain's central bank raised its 2026 growth forecast.
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