ICE raids trigger $1.26 billion loss for Chicago businesses

A new report from the University of Illinois Chicago shows that the fear generated by nationwide immigration crackdowns beginning in early 2025 sharply reduced consumer mobility in Chicago. By analyzing anonymous cellphone GPS traces, the researchers documented a near-instant halt to trips between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods after the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, 2025. Retail sales fell about 9% and restaurant visits 10%, translating into an estimated $1.26 billion loss for businesses outside immigrant areas and $107 million in lost state tax revenue.

Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author, said the effect persisted for a year and has not fully recovered. Interviews with local workers, such as a waitress named Caridad, illustrate the panic that drove shoppers away. The findings challenge the view that immigrant communities are isolated, showing instead that they are deeply woven into the city’s economic fabric.