Iceland's referendum on EU talks could become bloc's next enlargement triumph

Icelandans will decide by Aug. 29 whether to resume accession negotiations with the European Union, a referendum that could deliver a coveted enlargement success story for the bloc. The island nation, which withdrew its 2009 application in 2015, has seen its “yes” camp edge ahead in a late-July poll, giving EU officials hope of a positive outcome. Although Iceland already belongs to the Schengen travel zone and the European Economic Area, the prospective talks are likely to centre on contentious mackerel fishing quotas, a sector vital to its economy.

Brussels has deliberately stayed out of the domestic debate, with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier pledging a ready and constructive response should voters approve the restart. The move comes amid broader EU enlargement fatigue after Croatia’s 2013 accession and stalled Balkan candidates, making Iceland’s potential entry especially attractive. Geopolitical concerns, including U.S. defence ties and recent tensions over Greenland, have also prompted Reykjavik to reconsider EU membership. Despite the optimism, diplomats warn that negotiations will be tough, though few expect fish disputes to block accession.