IEA cuts global oil demand outlook as Middle East tensions lift prices
The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for this year's global oil consumption and highlighted rising prices amid Middle East unrest.
A fresh oil market analysis released on Friday shows the International Energy Agency revising its demand projection downward for the current year, indicating a larger drop than earlier estimates. The report links this revision to heightened crude prices, which have surged past $100 per barrel following renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran, attacks by the Houthi militia on the Yemeni port of Mocha, and Saudi Arabia's lowest production level in decades.
Additional factors such as tensions in the Hormuz Strait and constrained global refining capacity are contributing to elevated gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices. The IEA also highlighted that global oil inventories have been drawn down significantly during the conflict period. In Norway, motorists are experiencing higher pump prices now that fuel tax reductions ended on September 1.
Why it matters
Lower oil demand forecasts and rising prices affect global energy markets and consumer fuel costs.
How this story developed
- Jul 20 U.S. and Iran intensify air strikes over Strait of Hormuz, diplomacy stalls
- Sep 3 Iran's army claimed radar systems and locations where American forces were stationed at the UAE's Al Minhad Air Base were attacked with missiles and drones.
- Sep 4 Iran has begun testing methanol as an oxygenate in its gasoline blend.
- Sep 4 The United Arab Emirates announced a full stop to commercial and financial dealings with Iran.
- Sep 4 Iran announced missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
- Sep 5 Republican committees have filed a petition with the Supreme Court challenging the Fourth Circuit ruling.
- Sep 5 U.S. forces hit launchers on Larak Island and Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. sites in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- Sep 5 Vance publicly downplayed the reported civilian deaths from the alleged strike.
- Sep 5 Eyewitnesses said the explosions shattered the wedding celebration in Kuhestak.
- Sep 7 GasBuddy released a forecast predicting a $4.03 average gasoline price for the Labor Day weekend.
- Sep 7 Brent crude climbed to about $97 a barrel as US‑Iran clashes intensified, and analysts said gasoline prices may ease in October with the shift to winter‑grade fuel.
- Sep 9 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will soon publish coordinates for a new restricted sea zone stretching from Chabahar into the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, affecting vessels that enter or later attempt the Strait of Hormuz.
- Sep 10 Iran announced the zone will begin around Chabahar and cover parts of the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.
- Sep 11 Fed minutes revealed a 9‑3 vote to keep rates near 3.6% and a drop in market odds for a September hike to about 67%.
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