IEA predicts global oil use to decline this year while diesel markets stay tight

The International Energy Agency’s newest oil market analysis forecasts a reduction in global oil use this year, driven by elevated prices and softer economic prospects in several regions. While a slight increase in demand is anticipated for the following year, it will remain beneath the consumption levels recorded in 2025. The report highlights a recent decline in diesel exports relative to the previous year’s same month, indicating ongoing market strain.

Elevated diesel prices are already inflating product costs, affecting real incomes, economic activity, and price stability. The agency warns that the diesel market is likely to stay tightly balanced well into 2027. These dynamics underscore broader challenges for energy-dependent economies.