IFR Dashboard Predicts Migrant Majorities in Several European Nations by Mid-2040s
The Institute for Remigration's new Demography Dashboard forecasts that, under current trends, migrant populations will surpass native residents in Germany, Sweden, Belgium and other countries by the mid-2040s.
The Institute for Remigration has released an interactive Demography Dashboard that projects population changes across Europe based on existing immigration and birth-rate trends. In the baseline model, migrant groups become a majority in four of the fourteen countries examined, with Switzerland crossing the 50 % threshold in 2038, Belgium in 2044, Germany in 2045 and Sweden in 2046. Germany starts at a 32.0 % migrant share in 2026, while Sweden begins at 36.8 %.
The dashboard also presents a policy-driven scenario that cuts new migrant inflows by 90 % and adds a yearly remigration flow equal to 1 % of the initial migrant population, resulting in several nations dropping below a 5 % migrant share by the 2080s, including Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain and Finland. The Institute frames these projections as evidence that demographic outcomes depend on political choices, advocating for what it calls “demographic sovereignty.”
