IMF projects slower growth and higher inflation for Portugal in 2027

At the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok, the fund presented revised projections for the Portuguese economy that are less optimistic than the figures outlined in the upcoming state budget. Real GDP growth for the next year is expected to be lower than the Ministry of Finance’s estimate, and consumer-price inflation is forecast to exceed the government’s target by a noticeable margin. The unemployment rate is also slated to be slightly above the ministry’s projection.

For 2026, the IMF similarly lowered its growth outlook and raised its inflation estimate relative to the budget plan. These adjustments suggest a more challenging macro-economic environment for Portugal as global growth slows and energy-price pressures persist across Europe.