IMF sees AI driving 2026 growth despite Middle East war and debt risks

The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook in Bangkok, projecting global real GDP growth of 3.1% for 2026, up slightly from its July forecast, largely thanks to robust investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure. The agency stresses that the protracted Middle East war, which has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel, continues to threaten inflation and growth, even as nations have drawn down reserves and shifted energy sources to mitigate the impact.

A growing divergence is emerging: only 32 countries now generate 95% of world growth, reflecting the advantage of those supplying AI hardware such as South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand. The IMF downgraded nearly half of its forecasts since April, with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates now expected to contract sharply. It also warned that high public-debt levels could raise borrowing costs and urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers. Scenarios with higher oil prices or slower AI adoption could shave 0.2-0.5 percentage points off growth and push inflation above 5% by 2027.