India and South-East Asia only regions forecast rising real incomes, WEF survey finds

The World Economic Forum released its August Chief Economists' Outlook, indicating that only India and South-East Asia are projected to experience increases in inflation-adjusted household incomes over the coming 12 months, with over 60 % of the 36 surveyed economists supporting this view. In most other geographies, the majority expect incomes to stay flat or fall, driven by a broad cost-of-living squeeze led by food, electricity and transport price hikes.

Indian experts cautioned that the apparent protection of real incomes could erode as retail inflation approaches the Reserve Bank’s 6 % target, with food inflation posing the biggest risk. They also noted that the outlook hinges on crude oil price movements and that government and oil marketing companies have so far absorbed some shocks. The survey reflected strong growth expectations for India, with 98 % anticipating moderate or stronger GDP growth and a revised fiscal-2026/27 growth forecast of 6.7 %. Recent data showed the economy expanding 7.8 % in the April-June quarter, while retail inflation rose to 4.82 % and wholesale inflation to 9.92 %.