India's food price surge hits 7.74% as weak monsoon and El Niño raise concerns

India recorded a food inflation rate of 7.74% in September, up sharply from 5.97% the month before, as onion prices more than doubled compared with a year earlier. The spike follows the country's lowest June-September rainfall in over a decade, raising fears that a strong El Niño could further suppress the monsoon. Supply shortfalls in states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are driving up costs for onions, ginger, garlic and lemons.

Analysts from Emkay Global Financial Services and Crisil note that both adverse weather and rising global commodity prices are feeding the price surge, which could persist through 2027. Retail prices for rice, tur dal and groundnut oil also rose, though some vegetables like potatoes and tomatoes saw price declines.