India's monsoon falls 13% short, sparking crop and food-price concerns

The India Meteorological Department reported that the 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 13 percent less rain than the long-period average, the poorest performance since 2015 and among the lowest since the early 20th century. While central and northwest India saw near-normal precipitation, southern India was 24 percent below average and eastern states 26 percent below, leaving 38 percent of districts classified as “deficient”.

Kharif crops have been sown on roughly 110.7 million hectares, 1.2 percent less than the same date last year, but final yields will hinge on intra-season rain variability and irrigation gaps. ICRA’s monsoon wrap-up cut its FY27 agriculture, forestry and fishing growth forecast to 1 percent and flagged reduced reservoir storage in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, which together hold most rabi rice and coarse cereals.

Wheat-producing Punjab and Rajasthan also face irrigation risks after receiving only 59 percent and 78 percent of normal rain. Experts expect modest declines in field-crop yields but a relatively stronger horticulture outlook, though weather-related disruptions persist.