India's petroleum exports surge 46% as trade terms and new markets improve

India's petroleum product shipments increased 46% compared with the previous year, contributing to an 18.8% rise in total merchandise exports this fiscal year. Crisil notes that export prices for refined products have risen faster than crude oil import costs, improving India's oil terms of trade since the West Asia conflict began. After an initial slowdown, export volumes have recovered, and sales to newer markets have accelerated, compensating for weaker demand in some traditional destinations.

Supply disruptions in West Asia and a Russian export ban on diesel and gasoline have reshaped trade flows, prompting a notable rise in shipments to Russia despite a previously negligible base. Exports to the United Arab Emirates and the United States fell sharply in the April-June period, likely due to shipping route issues. With trade terms remaining favorable into September, Crisil expects the upward trend in petroleum exports to continue.