Iran's survival calculus, not ideology, drives its openness to a US settlement

Iran’s foreign policy is anchored in the constitutional mandate that protecting the system supersedes any ideological commitment, a rule codified in Article 112 after Khomeini’s 1988 decree. While the state publicly frames its stance as anti-imperialist, the doctrine is applied selectively, allowing Tehran to use regional conflicts for leverage while defending its own sovereignty. Past examples include the 1988 Iraq cease-fire, covert arms deals through Israel, and cooperation with the United States at the Bonn conference after 9/11.

Under the strain of the current US-Israel war, the regime signed the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, offering an end to fighting, sanctions relief and reconstruction aid, endorsed by Mojtaba Khamenei despite his reservations. The agreement reflects a reinterpretation of anti-imperialism as a flexible tool for survival rather than an absolute barrier, meaning a settlement with the US remains conceivable even as domestic repression persists.