Iran seeks new Middle East balance by taxing U.S. influence, not outright defeat

The February war between the United States and Iran altered the security landscape of the Middle East, inflicting heavy losses on Iranian forces and striking key military sites. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, and his son Modzstaba Khamenei was elected as his successor, but the Islamic Republic's core institutions survived. Iranian scholars Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr contend that Tehran's strategy is to make U.S. regional dominance financially and politically unsustainable, turning military resistance into a bargaining chip.

Iran also leverages its missile and drone capabilities to threaten strategic waterways like the Hormuz Strait, raising global energy prices. While the strategy carries risks to Iran's own economy and society, the leadership views prolonged pressure as a way to extract political concessions from the United States and its allies.