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CROSS-SPECTRUM

Iranian adviser warns war could spread from Gulf to Indian Ocean

Advisor Yahya Rahim Safavi said the conflict may expand beyond the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, potentially reaching the Indian Ocean.

In a video posted by the state news agency Fars, adviser Yahya Rahim Safavi warned that the ongoing war, now stretching from the Persian Gulf and Hormuz Strait into the Red Sea, could see the front move further into the Indian Ocean and possibly beyond. The conflict erupted at the end of February after US and Israeli attacks, which were justified by claims that Tehran was close to developing nuclear weapons. Those initial strikes killed the country's highest authority, ayatolla Ali Khamenei, whose son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed as his successor but has not appeared publicly.

Although Iran and the United States reached a tentative cease-fire deal in June, hostilities resumed within weeks. Since the fighting began, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely limited as Iran blocks the passage and the US restricts Iranian vessels, while the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen has tightened control over the Bab al-Mandab strait leading to the Red Sea.

Why it matters

The possible expansion of the war threatens global shipping lanes and could destabilize a wider region.

How this story developed

  1. Sep 2 Diesel hits $5.68 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Trump urges price cuts
  2. Sep 6 AAA linked the price surge to elevated crude oil prices from the Iran war and instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
  3. Sep 7 Diesel price rose to $5.85 per gallon, a new national high.
  4. Sep 10 Intense fighting has erupted across Yemen's north, west and central zones, killing at least 194 people and wounding 880 in the past two weeks.
  5. Sep 10 Houthis intensified attacks on the al‑Makha district near the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait.
  6. Sep 11 Houthi units have moved onto the Hanish Islands and are pressing southward toward Bab al‑Mandeb.
  7. Sep 11 Houthis seized Perim Island and the town of Dhubab.
  8. Sep 11 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged President Donald Trump to authorize U.S. strikes against the Houthis, but the United States limited its role to intelligence and targeting assistance.
  9. Sep 11 Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the pipeline was targeted by several drones launched from Iraq, causing human injuries and damage.
  10. Sep 14 U.S. officials report that roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict oil volumes are now moving through Hormuz, while Iran disputes control of the waterway. Tanker-tracker data, however, shows daily transits remain far below historic levels. At the same time, attacks on a Saudi pipeline and a vessel in the strait have lifted global oil prices.
  11. Sep 16 Houthis announced they now occupy the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands.
  12. Sep 19 Diesel prices reached $5.68 per gallon, the highest figure since 2022.
  13. Sep 21 Fire on the tanker was extinguished after the projectile strike.
  14. Sep 23 A cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile, igniting a fire and forcing crew evacuation.

In this story

war expansionPersian GulfRed SeaIndian Oceanceasefire collapseshipping disruptionHouthi controlIran-US conflict
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