Ireland's ageing and growing population set to strain health and social care spending
A new Economic and Social Research Institute report warns that Ireland’s expanding and ageing population will markedly increase demand on hospitals, long-term care and GP services, challenging fiscal sustainability.
The Economic and Social Research Institute released a report highlighting the fiscal pressure that Ireland’s demographic trends will place on its health and social care system. Total spending on these services reached roughly €35.1 billion in 2023, up 81% from 2014, and already accounts for a quarter of government outlays. Using 2022 Census data, the ESRI projected three migration scenarios, forecasting a population increase of 658,000 to 1.07 million by 2040, with a near-60% rise in the 65-84 age group and a doubling of those over 85.
To meet the anticipated demand, the public hospital sector would need between 5,083 and 7,780 extra beds, while long-term residential care would require an additional 20,695 to 27,207 beds, and about 943-1,211 more GPs. The report recommends exploring efficiency improvements, alternative financing, and preventive health strategies, noting that private funding and higher public spending face political and budgetary constraints. Ongoing measures include the Future Ireland Fund and hospital efficiency drives, but the authors stress that sustained action will be essential.
Why it matters
Demographic shifts could force Ireland to overhaul health spending and capacity, affecting taxpayers and service users.
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