Israel votes Tuesday in pivotal election amid war, judicial reforms and coalition deadlock

On Tuesday Israelis will vote in the first parliamentary election since the Oct. 7 Hamas assault and the ensuing Gaza war. The race is dominated by two blocs: Netanyahu’s Likud coalition, which includes United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, and a four-party opposition front comprising the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Together alliance led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Polls released before a ban on new surveys projected the opposition at 52 seats and Netanyahu’s camp at 50, with the balance split among unaffiliated and Arab parties such as Ra’am and the Joint List. Key campaign issues include accountability for security failures preceding the Oct. 7 attacks, the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption, and controversial judicial reforms that critics say erode democratic institutions. The election also tests public fatigue over multiple conflicts and the prospect of further diplomatic isolation. A defeat could expose Netanyahu to heightened scrutiny in his ongoing corruption trial and an ICC war-crimes arrest warrant, while Arab-citizen turnout could shape the balance of power in a fragmented Knesset.