Istat confirms lower deficit and upward GDP revision for 2025, but excess deficit procedure remains
Istat says Italy's deficit will shrink in 2025 and GDP forecasts have been raised, yet the country stays under the EU excess-deficit monitoring.
Istat’s latest fiscal outlook shows Italy’s net public-sector debt as a proportion of GDP will decrease in 2025, marking a modest improvement over the prior year. The agency also upgraded its estimate of nominal GDP for 2025 and raised the real growth rate, with a comparable upward revision for 2024. The deficit-to-GDP gap narrowed but still exceeds the European Union’s benchmark, meaning the country remains monitored under the excessive deficit procedure.
The revised growth picture reflects robust increases in gross fixed capital formation and a notable expansion in the construction sector, while consumption grew modestly. Export growth was modest, whereas imports rose more sharply, indicating a trade imbalance. Sector-by-sector, construction posted the strongest volume gain, followed by agriculture and industry, with services expanding only slightly.
