Italy faces a drop of nearly 4 million residents by 2050, ISTAT warns
Italy's national statistics office projects the population will fall from about 58.9 million in 2025 to roughly 55 million by 2050, straining the economy and welfare system.
The Italian statistical institute ISTAT released new population forecasts that indicate a decline of nearly 4 million people by 2050, dropping the resident total from 58.9 million at the start of 2025 to about 55 million. By 2080 the figure could fall further to 45.8 million. The ageing of the post-war baby-boom generation will push the proportion of those aged 65 or older to 34.5 % in 2050, while the share of the 15-to-64 age group will shrink to 55.3 %.
Births have been falling steadily since 2008, reaching roughly 355,000 last year—the lowest count since Italy’s unification—and are expected to decline to 335,000 by 2050. Deaths are forecast to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who promised to boost fertility after assuming office in 2022, has seen limited results. The demographic squeeze will be most pronounced in southern Italy, where the population could drop from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050, while central and northern regions will experience milder declines.
Why it matters
A shrinking and ageing population threatens Italy's economic growth and the sustainability of its pension and health systems.
How the sides frame it
HIGH AGREEMENTBoth camps report the same ISTAT forecasts of a near-4 million population drop by 2050, but the right-leaning coverage adds detailed age-group percentages and historic low birth figures, whereas the centrist coverage emphasizes the economic and welfare challenges and the prime minister’s focus on boosting births.
CENTER
Frames the shrinkage as a fresh challenge for Italy’s economy and welfare system and notes the government’s priority to raise the birth rate.
RIGHT
Frames the decline with detailed demographic statistics, highlighting the ageing boom generation, record-low births and rising deaths.
The right emphasises
- decline of nearly 4 million people by 2050, dropping resident total to about 55 million
- ageing of the post-war baby-boom will push the 65-plus share to 34.5 % and the 15-64 share down to 55.3 %
- births at roughly 355,000 last year - the lowest since Italy’s unification - and deaths forecast to peak at 869,000 in 2058
In this story
