IUCN warns that 96% of shallow coral reefs face collapse by 2075

In a first-of-its-kind global review, the International Union for Conservation of Nature labeled 96% of shallow-water coral reefs as critically endangered, the highest risk category on its Red List. The study applied the United Nations’ middle-of-the-road climate pathway, which anticipates a 2.7 °C temperature increase by 2100, and concluded that most reefs could collapse by 2075 if trends continue. Heat stress from rising sea temperatures is the dominant threat, while overfishing of key species such as parrotfish, coastal development, pollution, tourism and more frequent storms exacerbate the decline.

The analysis examined 127 reef regions, encompassing the Great Barrier Reef, the Coral Triangle, the Caribbean’s Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System and the Red Sea. IUCN officials stress that reefs have shown resilience after past bleaching events, but decisive action on emissions, stronger protection and restoration is essential to avert widespread loss.