JD Vance says Republicans can avoid a historic midterm defeat despite polls
Vice President JD Vance said that Republicans could defy history in the upcoming midterms, even as internal polls show the party trailing in several key races.
In an exclusive interview, Vice President JD Vance claimed the Republican Party could avoid a sweeping defeat in the November midterms, arguing that one outlet economic gains and job creation set a stronger record than in 2006. He highlighted his recent campaign stops across Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine, and specifically urged voters in North Carolina to back Senate hopeful Michael Whatley, who lags his Democratic rival by as much as 12 points in a YouGov poll.
Vance criticized Democratic Governor Roy Cooper for blocking legislation on voter identification, voter-roll cleanup, and parental rights, labeling such moves as driven by the “radical left.” He noted that despite President Donald Trump’s low approval and an unpopular war in Iran, the GOP’s worst-case scenario is still far better than the 2006 outcome. Market forecasts from Kalshi place Democratic odds at 64% for the Senate and 91% for the House, prompting political consultants to prepare for a potential wave similar to that year.
Why it matters
Vance’s upbeat outlook shapes GOP campaign strategy ahead of a pivotal midterm election that could determine congressional control.
How this story developed
- Sep 6 Trump's approval hits record low as economic worries rise ahead of midterms
- Sep 9 Republican insiders say the war with Iran has pushed oil and diesel prices above $100 a barrel, creating inflation that threatens GOP candidates in key states ahead of the midterms and leaving the administration with few options.
- Sep 10 At a two-day Republican convention in Dallas, Donald Trump pledged a $5,000 payment to every adult American if his party holds both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.
- Sep 16 A post-convention poll showed Democrats ahead on the generic ballot.
- Sep 16 The House of Representatives voted 220-204 to adopt a resolution that orders President Trump to end the ongoing war in Iran, marking a rare bipartisan effort. Seven Republicans—Thomas Massie (KY), Tom Barrett (MI), Warren Davidson (OH), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Nancy Mace (SC), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA) and Zach Nunn (IA)—joined Democrats in supporting the measure, three more than in prior votes. Rep. Jason Crow led the push, emphasizing that both parties are fed up with the conflict, now in its seventh month. On the same day, Rep. Massie, who lost his primary, filed impeachment articles against Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, accusing him of executing unlawful war orders. Public sentiment remains strongly against the war, with an Ipsos poll indicating 71% of Americans favor withdrawal. The resolution reflects growing congressional pressure to rein in presidential war powers.
- Sep 16 Seven Republicans voted for the resolution, three more than in earlier votes.
- Sep 17 Stickers mocking Trump on gas pumps have begun appearing publicly.
- Sep 23 Ashley Hinson posted on X calling for an immediate end to the war in Iran.
- Sep 24 Trump introduced the $5,000 voter payment pledge at the Dallas convention.
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