Job-finding success drops sharply for America’s most consistently employed workers
A Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond study shows that primary workers, who are usually continuously employed, saw their job-finding rate fall 13 points between November 2022 and September 2025, the steepest decline among all groups.
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond examined how three labor-market segments have fared in recent job searches. Primary workers—roughly 55% of U.S. workers who are almost always employed—saw their job-finding rate slide from a November 2022 peak to a September 2025 low, a 13-percentage-point drop that eclipses declines for any other group. Secondary workers, who make up about 14% of the labor pool and often cycle through unemployment, experienced a modest two-point fall over the same period.
The study highlights that roles with a high overlap with AI-related tasks suffered the greatest reductions, a shift that accelerated after generative AI tools like ChatGPT entered the market. For entry-level workers, AI-driven productivity gains are tightening hiring standards, while seasoned white-collar employees are confronting tougher prospects, sometimes resorting to wage cuts. Although professional and business services added some jobs, overall U.S. employment fell in July, suggesting continued challenges for job seekers.
Why it matters
The decline signals growing difficulty for traditionally secure workers to find new jobs, reshaping labor market dynamics.
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