JPMorgan abandons oil price baseline amid escalating Iran conflict

JPMorgan’s commodities division announced it has dropped its standard baseline view for oil prices, citing the seven-month-old Iran conflict as a source of unprecedented uncertainty. In a conference call with a large institutional investor, strategists explained that they cannot model the conflict’s endgame, a stance echoed in a client note referencing crossed U.S. red lines. The war has curtailed roughly a quarter of global oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia has reduced shipments to Europe after drone attacks on its pipeline. Mixed signals from the White House and President Donald Trump’s tentative outreach to Iran further cloud the outlook, leaving Brent crude to swing between $72 and $126 per barrel since February.